A Polymarket account known as coldsway won only four of 15 World Cup positions, with major losses on Morocco, Canada, Portugal, Belgium and Spain bets as tournament volatility hit favorite-side wagers.
A Polymarket account known as coldsway lost $11.6 million across 15 World Cup bets in 10 days, with only four positions ending in profit and a win rate of 26.7%. Polymarket data shows the trader made $4.23 million on winning bets but lost $15.86 million on 11 losing positions. The largest single setback was a $4.9 million wager that Morocco would not win its July 4 match, which was wiped out, while a $3.1 million bet against Canada and other losses tied to Portugal, Belgium and Spain added to the drawdown. The account’s profitable trades were smaller contrarian bets, including an Australia-Egypt draw position worth more than $1.1 million and a Ghana spread against Colombia that returned a similar amount. The losses come as Polymarket’s World Cup markets have generated billions in volume since the group stage began, with several large favorite-backed bets undone by draws and upsets. Other tournament losses included roughly $4.2 million by a trader known as FlickRaw in mid-June and about $1 million lost by bettors backing Spain when Cape Verde forced a scoreless draw. Coldsway’s account remains active heading into the knockout rounds, with open positions that could still affect the final total.