Diplomacy hopes and fresh attacks on Kyiv and St. Petersburg have put investors on alert ahead of a NATO summit in Ankara.
The Russia-Ukraine war appeared to enter a new phase over the weekend as U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly held separate calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while both sides intensified attacks ahead of a NATO summit in Ankara. Zelenskyy said there was "a real prospect to put an end to this war" and that he had agreed with Trump to continue talks at the two-day gathering of 32 heads of state starting Tuesday in Turkey's capital. The Kremlin said Trump also spoke with Putin for 90 minutes and offered to help find a solution to the war, with Yury Ushakon, a Kremlin aide, describing the conversation as "businesslike and very constructive." At the same time, Ukrainian drones reportedly hit an oil terminal in St. Petersburg and the Kronstadt Naval Base, the main base of the Russian Baltic Fleet, causing fires, while Russia launched its second large-scale attack on Kyiv in less than a week. Authorities said the strikes on Ukraine's capital early Monday killed at least 11 people and heavily damaged residential high-rise buildings. The twin tracks of possible renewed diplomacy and military escalation are forcing markets to weigh geopolitical risk, energy security and Europe's defense spending commitments. Researchers at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW, a Washington-based think tank) said Putin appeared to be pushing battlefield narratives meant to counter growing discussion of Ukrainian gains, as the Trump administration has spoken more openly about Ukraine's mid- to long-range strikes on Russian military and energy targets.