By September, markets price a 42.9% chance of no change, a 46.2% chance of 25 basis points of tightening, and a 10.8% chance of 50 basis points.
Markets are pricing a 74.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in July, with a 25.7% chance of a cumulative 25 basis points of rate hikes. For September, pricing points to a 42.9% probability that rates stay unchanged, a 46.2% probability of cumulative tightening of 25 basis points, and a 10.8% probability of cumulative tightening of 50 basis points. Such probabilities are closely watched across crypto and broader risk assets because shifts in expected U.S. monetary policy can influence liquidity conditions and investor appetite for volatile markets.