Vessel traffic through the oil chokepoint fell to 25 ships on July 8 after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was over, prompting prediction markets to lower near-term normalization odds.
Prediction markets further reduced expectations for a near-term normalization in Strait of Hormuz shipping after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "over" and vessel traffic fell to 25 ships on July 8. Kalshi now shows a 44% chance that traffic flows return to normal by Dec. 1 and a 53% chance by Jan. 1, 2027, compared with more than 50% odds on July 4 that flows would normalize by Oct. 1. Polymarket traders are somewhat more optimistic, pricing a 59% chance of normalization by Dec. 31 using the same settlement definition and IMF PortWatch data. The strait is a critical energy shipping chokepoint, so prolonged disruption can affect oil supply expectations, freight markets, insurance costs and investor sentiment.