Elon Musk says AI carries 10%-20% disaster risk but should keep advancing

In an interview with The Economist, Musk said AI could exceed the combined intelligence of humanity in about five years, while arguing the technology’s momentum is too strong to stop.

Summary

Elon Musk said artificial intelligence and robots still pose a meaningful risk of catastrophe, which he again estimated at 10%-20%, but argued that development is now effectively unstoppable and should continue because the most likely outcome is abundance. Speaking in an interview with The Economist’s Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes, he said AI could surpass the combined intelligence of humanity in about five years and that humans are unlikely to remain in control within a decade. Musk described the advance of AI and robotics as "inexorable progress," said he had made peace with continuing despite the risks, and argued the priority should be to reduce the odds of a bad outcome by ensuring advanced AI has values that support human happiness and prosperity. He also said he had spoken with Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis and suggested leading AI executives hold regular calls to discuss safety and security issues.

Terms & Concepts
  • GPT-4: A large language model benchmark referenced in debates over how powerful AI systems have become.