JPMorgan sees TMT bond issuance hitting record $540 billion in 2026 on AI buildout

Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is still driving a sharp expansion in technology financing in 2026, even as credit investors show signs of fatigue. JPMorgan raised its forecast for technology, media and telecommunications debt issuance to $540 billion from $450 billion and said technology-related corporate bond sales should exceed $500 billion this year, with $317 billion expected from hyperscalers and about $85 billion from data center project finance that could top $100 billion if more pipeline deals close. The bank also nearly doubled its forecast for technology issuance outside hyperscalers to roughly $146 billion from $78 billion, citing Nvidia's $25 billion bond sale in June, and said chip-backed financing could become the next major funding channel for AI infrastructure. Meta Platforms is expected to return to the bond market after third-quarter earnings, while Microsoft is viewed as the largest wildcard because it has not sold bonds since 2017. The heavier supply is straining demand: SpaceX and Amazon bonds traded poorly in the secondary market, spreads widened by about 15 basis points after $75 billion of unexpected June and July issuance, and Oracle's spreads have hovered near junk levels after an S&P Global Ratings downgrade, though JPMorgan remains overweight on the company. The financing wave is being reinforced by continuing hardware demand, with AMD reporting $6.7 billion in second-quarter data center sales, up 107% from a year earlier, as chipmakers and cloud groups keep expanding AI capacity.

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