UBS said gold could reach $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2027, while warning that near-term risks remain after prices fell 23% from a late-January record high of $5,594.82. Spot gold was trading around $4,295 an ounce. The bank said bullion has come under pressure as the conflict in the Middle East fuelled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer, a backdrop that typically hurts demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. The Fed left its benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range last week, and UBS expects inflation to moderate gradually, allowing the central bank to keep rates on hold this year before resuming its easing cycle in 2027. UBS Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele said periods of weakness toward $4,000 an ounce or below may offer opportunities to build strategic exposure.