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Gold jumps after weak U.S. payrolls fuel Fed rate-cut expectations

Gold jumps after weak U.S. payrolls fuel Fed rate-cut expectations

A drop of 23,000 in July nonfarm payrolls and deeper prior-month revisions cut expectations for further Fed tightening, weakened the dollar and helped drive a broader rally in gold, silver and equities.

Fact Check
The official BLS Employment Situation Summary for July 2026 directly confirms every element of the claim: nonfarm payrolls -23,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, June revised to +20,000, and slowing wage growth (+3.2% year-over-year). The -23,000 actual versus +80,000 forecast is corroborated by the TradingEconomics report ('US Economy Sheds 23K Jobs in July') and the Odaily newsflash, which cites the same actual, forecast, and June revision figures. All sources are consistent.
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Summary

Gold remained supported after weak U.S. labor data reshaped interest-rate expectations and lifted haven demand. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, versus expectations for an 80,000 increase, while May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000. That prompted markets to sharply reduce expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, with the implied probability of a September rate increase falling to 44% from about 58%, while the dollar index posted a second straight weekly decline. Precious metals extended the move, with gold up more than 7% for the week and silver up more than 10%, as lower-rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz supported demand. U.S. stocks also rose over the week. In energy markets, oil swung sharply as reports said Iran and Oman had reached a temporary 60-day framework on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though the arrangement still requires Iranian approval and disagreements remain between Iran and the U.S. over control of the waterway.

Terms & Concepts
  • nonfarm payrolls: A closely watched monthly U.S. employment report that often shifts expectations for Federal Reserve policy and economic momentum.
  • COMEX: A major U.S. futures exchange where metals contracts such as gold are traded.
  • Treasury yields: The returns on U.S. government bonds, which can influence the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.