US one-year inflation expectations edge down to 3.6% in July 2026

U.S. consumers' median inflation expectations for the year ahead eased to 3.6% in July 2026 from 3.7% in June, which had been the highest reading since September 2023. Longer-term expectations were steady, with three-year-ahead inflation expectations unchanged at 3.3% and five-year-ahead expectations holding at 3%. The latest readings showed lower expected price growth for medical care and rent, no change for food and home prices, and faster expected increases for gas and college education. Outside inflation, one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations stayed at 2.8%, household spending growth expectations slipped to 4.9%, and unemployment expectations rose to 42.8%, pointing to a mixed view of household finances and the labor market.

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