SK Hynix prepares 100 trillion won shareholder return plan as analysts flag Q3 catalysts

SK Hynix shares came under heavy pressure last week, falling 15%, as investors reacted to rumors around Nvidia's HBM orders, possible HBM4 pricing cuts, capital spending and unclear shareholder returns. JPMorgan and CLSA have since argued the selloff was overdone, saying the key concerns do not materially undermine the company's medium-term outlook. JPMorgan kept an Overweight rating with a 2.75 million won target price, while CLSA assigned a High Conviction Outperform rating with a 3.7 million won target. The banks pushed back on claims that HBM4 would be sold at a 50% discount, with JPMorgan calling that report inaccurate and arguing that any lower-than-expected HBM pricing could reflect a strategy to secure higher-margin long-term agreements across DDR5, LPDDR5 and NAND, while managing multiyear supply arrangements with Nvidia. CLSA said SK Hynix's HBM4 cost structure could remain more competitive than peers' even at lower prices, and added that supply-chain checks suggest Nvidia may reduce HBM content per Rubin Ultra GPU in the second half of 2027 because of supply constraints rather than weaker demand. Investors are also focused on shareholder returns after SK Hynix said in a regulatory filing that it expects to finalize and disclose additional measures before the end of the third quarter, earlier than its previous year-end indication. That follows expectations from Bank of America that both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics could return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders. Earlier reporting said SK Hynix was reviewing a package worth roughly 100 trillion won, while analysts have outlined scenarios including more than 40 trillion won in buybacks and more than 20 trillion won in dividends. JPMorgan said the company is continuing with a previously established 54 trillion won infrastructure investment plan rather than launching an unexpected new spending cycle, and said investors are now watching updates over the next one to two months on the shareholder return plan, HBM contract pricing and any U.S. listing plan for subsidiary Solidigm.

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