Citi cut on Micron and AAOI surge fuel memory-versus-optical debate

Micron Technology shares edged higher in Monday premarket trading as broader technology stocks advanced, even after Citi trimmed its price target to $1,150 from $1,400 and warned that memory pricing momentum is likely to slow over the next year. The bank maintained a Buy rating but reduced its valuation multiple and cut its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates, saying DRAM and NAND prices should keep rising from current levels before peaking in the second quarter of next year. Citi said the biggest long-term risk to Micron is rising Chinese memory capacity, which could pressure pricing outside the U.S. even if trade restrictions limit Chinese suppliers' access to the American market. The more cautious stance landed as Wall Street was already debating whether AI infrastructure spending is rotating from memory toward optical networking after Applied Optoelectronics' strong results lifted that sector. Against Citi's view, Trivariate Research CEO Adam Parker told CNBC that Micron, NVIDIA and other compute-related stocks could move meaningfully higher over the next 12 months, with Micron potentially doubling by the end of the cycle as investors may be overestimating the eventual earnings decline. He pointed to Micron's revenue outlook, gross margins, balance-sheet improvement and potential for substantial free cash flow, while also urging diversification because AI semiconductor volatility remains high. Micron was indicated down 0.06% at $877.07 in Monday premarket trading after earlier gaining about 1%, and its next earnings report is estimated for Sept. 22, 2026, with analysts projecting earnings of $31.29 per share on revenue of $50.82 billion.

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