European gas prices hold elevated as Hormuz talks fail to restore LNG flow outlook

European natural gas prices remained elevated in early August as Iran signaled the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until unspecified conditions are met, reinforcing market expectations that Iran-Oman talks would not restore normal LNG flows. Dutch TTF benchmark prices traded around €56 to €61 per megawatt-hour near Aug. 10. Roughly 19% to 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait, and Europe has been particularly exposed because about 12% to 14% of its LNG imports come from Qatar via that route. The disruption dates to February 2026, when Iranian military actions and subsequent U.S. responses significantly curtailed LNG shipping through the chokepoint. Prices surged 44% between February and May before settling into a higher range, supported by persistent supply constraints even as European storage and alternative supplies have limited a sharper spike.

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