Wisconsin state Rep. Francesca Hong entered the Democratic gubernatorial primary as a heavy favorite, with Kalshi pricing her chances at 95.5% on Monday, but Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly beat her by 0.4 percentage points when the race was called early Wednesday by the Associated Press. Hong won 39.4% of the vote, roughly in line with late polling, but surveys underestimated Crowley’s support in a volatile contest shaped by several last-minute developments. Crowley was endorsed by retiring Gov. Tony Evers, while Hong, a democratic socialist, had backing from some prominent progressives including Reps. Ro Khanna and Ilhan Omar. The crowded field also mattered: Roys took 7.5% of the vote and former state official Joel Brennan won 4.7%, shares large enough to affect the result. The upset underscored both the limits of sparse primary polling and the difficulty of modeling fast-moving, multi-candidate races.