Iran’s oil export network appears heavily disrupted as U.S. enforcement of a naval blockade keeps key terminals largely inactive, with the sharpest impact centered on Kharg Island, which handles most of the country’s crude exports. Satellite and shipping data cited by Bloomberg Markets showed no tanker loading at the island for at least a week and multiple tankers sitting idle offshore, reinforcing the view that the blockade, reimposed earlier this year, remains active. Prediction market (event-betting market) expectations for a near-term resolution have weakened, with odds that the blockade ends by August 31, 2026 falling to 33.5% from 48% over the past 24 hours. Investors are now watching for official signals from Washington or Tehran, including renewed diplomacy or changes in military posture, that could shift expectations around Iran’s ability to resume exports.