A viral post viewed more than 300,000 times on Monday morning cast Iran as having categorically ruled out negotiations with President Donald Trump until 2029, but the underlying evidence points to a narrower and more conditional position. The claim rests mainly on remarks by Majid Shakeri, an influential conservative analyst who has advised Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with additional assertions such as a $300 billion war-compensation demand attributed only to an unnamed senior Iranian source. Shakeri said, "Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends," and later described a strategy of managing "neither war nor peace" until victory. That falls short of an official Iranian policy statement, especially as Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that messages are still moving through intermediaries and that talks could resume once Washington stops violating the interim memorandum signed in June. President Donald Trump also indicated a wait-and-see approach, saying the United States is only "semi-negotiating" while watching Iran's economic strain. On Polymarket, a prediction market (event-betting platform), traders put the chance of normal Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic by Dec. 31 at 47%, down from about 60% a week earlier, while a separate market with more than $14 million in volume priced a signed final nuclear deal by Aug. 31 at 1% and by year-end at 23%. Together, those odds suggest a prolonged stalemate rather than a decisive diplomatic breakthrough.