Wheat prices jumped more than 3% above $6.50 a bushel on Wednesday, extending a Black Sea-driven rally and moving back toward the two-year high of $7.08 reached on July 22 after reported Ukrainian drone strikes halted operations at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia's leading Black Sea wheat export port. The disruption sharpened concern over shipments during the peak export season as Russia and Ukraine increasingly target each other's vessels and logistics infrastructure. Russia's wheat exports are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly a decade in August, and consultancy IKAR cut its 2026/27 export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes, while Ukraine has lowered its grain export outlook by up to 12%. Because Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, threats to Black Sea flows can quickly ripple through futures prices, although weak international demand, lower Russian prices and alternative export routes could limit the hit to global supplies.