Anthropic late-October Nasdaq IPO seen at 62% probability on prediction markets

Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, is increasingly being viewed as a likely Nasdaq IPO candidate by late October after a confidential filing in June, with prediction markets pricing the chance of a listing at 62%. Earlier reporting had pointed to a September or early October timetable, while pre-IPO investor meetings underscored how closely the market is watching the company's path to what could be one of the largest IPOs on record. Polymarket traders have also turned more bullish on Anthropic's valuation, with PPP tracking showing 76% odds of reaching $150 billion and 92% odds of hitting $125 billion by year-end. Under those contract rules, Nasdaq Private Market data is the main settlement reference, and the page currently cites an Anthropic valuation of about $113 billion, compared with the roughly $96.5 billion valuation referenced in the earlier Wall Street Journal report. Investors are also weighing questions around lower-cost AI competition, tensions with the Trump administration, resistance to data center construction, Anthropic's push into healthcare and biology AI, disputes tied to Chinese model distillation involving DeepSeek and Alibaba, and potential U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission milestones such as an effective Form S-1 and roadshow timing.

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