July payrolls fall 23,000, easing case for September Fed hike

July's U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 after June was revised to a 20,000 gain and May was cut again to 63,000 from an initially reported 172,000, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly wages rose 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.62, slowing annual wage growth to 3.3%. Economists said a 50,000 drop in local government education likely reflected seasonal-adjustment distortions because private payrolls remained positive, but the softer hiring and wage figures still weakened the case for a September rate increase by the Federal Reserve unless upcoming inflation data surprise to the upside. After the release, CME FedWatch Tool odds of a quarter-point increase in the federal-funds rate target fell to about 44% from 55%, although markets still priced more than a 75% chance of at least one additional hike before the end of 2026. Treasury yields fell as bond prices rose, and by Monday the S&P 500 and Dow were flat near record highs while the Nasdaq 100 edged lower as investors looked ahead to inflation data due Wednesday and Thursday and noted the Fed will still see August jobs and inflation reports before its September meeting.

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