U.S. small business confidence strengthened in July 2026, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rising to 99.8 from 97.4 in June, above the 97.5 forecast and the 52-year average of 98.0, as hiring intentions and capital spending plans improved. A net 20% of owners planned to add jobs over the next three months, up 9 points and the highest since October 2022, while the employment index rose to 102.1; Pantheon Macroeconomics said the hiring measure has been a reliable lead signal for private payroll figures, potentially tempering recession fears after a weak July jobs report. Price increase measures cooled, but unfilled job openings hit their highest since June 2025, showing labor supply constraints could limit how far stronger sentiment translates into hiring and expansion.