Oil steadies below $83 as Hormuz talks stall and Polymarket odds ease

Oil prices remained volatile on Aug. 12 while European natural gas stayed elevated for the week, as traders weighed stalled U.S.-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz against signs of physical disruption to energy flows. WTI briefly extended a five-session rally and settled at $83.27 a barrel, up $0.07, while Brent touched $90.03 before settling at $88.91. Polymarket odds of August WTI topping $85 eased to 71% from 95%, with $90 and $95 outcomes falling to 42% and 25%. In Europe, gas slipped below €60 per MWh on Thursday but remained more than 8% higher for the week as delayed Qatari LNG cargoes, slower Gulf shipping and heat-driven power demand complicated storage rebuilding ahead of winter. Oil gains were tempered by OPEC lowering its global demand forecast and API reporting an unexpected 9.1 million-barrel U.S. crude inventory build.

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