A disruption of about 600,000 barrels a day in Middle East oil supply is expected to persist until the end of 2027, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional conflict continue to disrupt crude flows, production and fuel markets. The outlook points to a prolonged, multi-year constraint on regional oil supply rather than a short-lived interruption. The agency said oil transported through Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter, down from 21.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2025 before U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. It estimated Middle Eastern oil production shut-ins eased to 5.5 million barrels a day in July from 7.5 million in June, but projected they would widen again to 6.6 million barrels a day in the third quarter. Under an assumption that threats against Saudi crude tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait do not trigger additional shutdowns, most oil production and trade flows could return to pre-war levels by early 2027, though some producers may still struggle to restore output before the end of 2027.