Brazil central bank defends 14.00% Selic as services data shows resilient demand

Brazil's central bank said aggressive monetary tightening is cooling the economy but kept a cautious stance after lowering the benchmark Selic rate to 14.00% with a fourth consecutive quarter-point cut, saying inflation pressures remain largely driven by domestic demand. Minutes from the latest Copom meeting showed policymakers see a broad-based slowdown between the first and second quarters across supply and demand, but June services data from IBGE, Brazil's statistics agency, suggested resilience at the end of the quarter, with activity unchanged from May versus forecasts for a 0.2% decline and up 2.0% from a year earlier versus expectations for 1.4%. JPMorgan said the services figures reduced downside risks to growth and supported its forecast for roughly 2% annualized second-quarter GDP growth. The central bank gave no forward guidance, stressed policy will remain restrictive and data-dependent, and said deteriorating longer-term inflation expectations remain a key concern for credibility and reanchoring expectations.

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