Crude oil fell below $83 and later held near $81 as investors weighed ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, conflicting U.S. and Iranian claims over control of the waterway, softer demand signals and rising U.S. crude inventories. President Donald Trump said the United States had "total control" over Hormuz and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. Navy could sustain its blockade indefinitely, but Iran rejected those claims and said the strait would not fully reopen unless Tehran's conditions were met. Morgan Stanley said in an Aug. 13 report that negotiations are likely to be prolonged and uneven, keeping uncertainty over crude supply elevated and global oil markets relatively tight. The bank said another sharp rebound in oil prices is the main near-term risk for U.S. equities, while still expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged this year. Demand concerns also deepened after the IEA cut its global oil demand outlook and OPEC lowered its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, its fourth straight downward revision.