Polymarket traders were assigning a 9% probability that Nvidia would close August at or above $250, down from 50% a month earlier, even as the stock rose 2.66% to $223.21 ahead of its Aug. 26, 2026 earnings report. The Polygon-based market also put 9% odds on a finish above $260, while giving a 62% chance of closing above $210 on Aug. 31, an 87% chance of ending above $190 and a 99% probability of closing above $140. Investors were weighing continued AI infrastructure spending, upbeat semiconductor sentiment and Wall Street expectations for about $92 billion in revenue and $2.08 in earnings per share, roughly double the year-earlier profit per share. Analysts also noted that Nvidia has topped its own revenue guidance by at least $3 billion for three straight quarters, even as the company's current outlook points to its slowest quarterly growth in more than a year. Nvidia carries a Buy consensus rating, and the sources cited average analyst targets of $313, $323 for the third quarter and $325.74.