The International Energy Agency still expects global oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, compared with its earlier forecast for a 1-million-barrel-a-day decline, as Middle East hostilities, disruptions around key shipping routes and higher fuel prices curb consumption. Its latest outlook also points to a sharper decline in global oil inventories this quarter, underscoring a persistent supply deficit as production lags earlier estimates, emergency reserves are depleted and stock replenishment remains slow. Prediction-market pricing cited in the new report suggests traders still assign low odds to crude oil reaching a new all-time high by Sept. 30, with a YES outcome priced at 3.8%, while the probability rises to 12.5% by Dec. 31 as investors watch for catalysts including geopolitical tensions and possible production changes by major oil producers.