Forecasts for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment now range from 3.2% to 3.6% after July inflation data showed price pressures moderating, with even the lowest estimate topping the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received in 2026. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% from a year earlier in July, down from 3.5% in June, while core CPI increased 2.5%, matching Wall Street expectations. The Senior Citizens League lowered its estimate to 3.6% from 3.8%, AARP trimmed its projection to 3.5% from 3.6%, independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson estimated 3.4%, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected 3.2%. Based on the average monthly retirement benefit of about $2,092 in June, the projected increase would add roughly $67 to $75 a month for the average retiree. The annual adjustment is calculated using third-quarter inflation data from July through September based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The Social Security Administration is set to announce the official 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, with the increase taking effect in January. Analysts and advocacy groups said energy prices remain a key uncertainty over the next two months, while retiree advocates argue that headline inflation still understates the pressure many seniors face from healthcare, housing and other essential costs. The higher projected COLA would offer near-term relief for millions of beneficiaries, but it also comes as the program faces longer-term financing strains. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said the Social Security retirement fund is six years from insolvency and warned that automatic benefit cuts of 22% would occur if the fund is depleted.