Gold rebounds after 18% drop in 2026 as rate-hike odds fade

Gold has staged a strong rebound after an 18% slide from its 2026 peak, with last week marking its best performance since January as softer inflation data and falling expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike improved the metal's appeal. Gold had surged above $5,000 early in the year and later topped $5,300 an ounce before turning sharply lower, leaving its year-to-date return close to flat even though it remains up by more than $1,000 over the past year, according to Goldprice.org. Strategists and investors cited a mix of macro forces behind the latest move, including weaker jobs data, a softer U.S. dollar, tactical ETF flows and ongoing central-bank accumulation, especially by China. Some market participants argue the longer-term case for gold remains intact because of concerns over U.S. fiscal spending, inflation and faith in fiat money (government-issued currency), while others stress the recent rally looks more tied to changing rate expectations than to outright panic. Analysts also pointed to stronger technical signals after gold moved above its 50-day moving average and broke a pattern of lower highs, though several cautioned that volatility may persist as markets watch the Fed, Jackson Hole and policy signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Investors seeking exposure have turned to bullion ETFs such as GLD, GLDM and IAU, as well as mining-stock funds including GDX and GDXJ, which can amplify moves in the underlying metal.

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