Novo Nordisk CEO says obesity drug market will support multiple winners as Lilly extends lead

Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar said the obesity drug market is unlikely to produce a single winner, arguing that oral GLP-1 therapies and next-generation treatments will create a more fragmented market as patient preferences broaden. His comments come as Eli Lilly holds roughly 60% of the U.S. weight-loss drug market versus 38% for Novo Nordisk, and as Wall Street has cut long-term forecasts for the global obesity drug market to just over $100 billion from earlier projections of $150 billion to $200 billion by 2030. Doustdar pointed to Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy franchise as evidence that differentiated products can expand the market rather than merely shift share from injectables. He said the pill holds about 90% of the oral GLP-1 market and that more than three million prescriptions had been filled by June, with over 80% going to patients new to GLP-1 therapy. Novo had forecast in January that oral drugs could account for more than one-third of GLP-1 usage by 2030. He also defended CagriSema, Novo's next-generation obesity drug, after trial data showing average weight loss of about 23% fell short of the more than 25% reported for Lilly's Zepbound in separate studies. Novo plans to launch CagriSema next year and sees it as part of a broader treatment portfolio rather than a single product expected to displace rivals. The remarks land against a tougher market backdrop. Berenberg downgraded Novo Nordisk to hold from buy and cut its Copenhagen price target to DKK 305 from DKK 325, saying Lilly's momentum in both oral and injectable obesity drugs limits room for further valuation gains. Novo reported second-quarter sales of $12.1 billion, up 7% from a year earlier and ahead of analyst estimates, while Zepbound generated $4.9 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 46%, compared with Wegovy sales of 19.4 billion Danish kroner, about $3 billion, up 1%.

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