South Korea's National Pension is projected to surpass 10 million recipients for the first time in 2030, underscoring the country's rapid aging even as the contributor base shrinks. The National Pension Research Institute said recipients will reach 10.6 million in 2030 and annual payouts will rise to 81.7 trillion won, or about $57.8 billion, from 8.28 million recipients and 56 trillion won in 2026. Over the same period, contributors paying premiums are expected to fall from 21.81 million at the end of 2025 to 20.51 million by 2030, putting South Korea on track for roughly one in five citizens to be receiving a pension. The shift is being driven by the retirement of the large baby-boom generation born in the 1960s, many of whom have completed the minimum 10-year contribution period, while low birth rates and population aging are reducing the working-age population. Even so, the fund is still expected to expand in the medium term because last year's reform will gradually raise the premium rate from 9% to 13%, lifting premium income from 68.6 trillion won in 2026 to 91.6 trillion won in 2030. The accumulated fund is projected to grow from 1,458 trillion won at the end of 2025 to 1,898 trillion won by the end of 2030. Public skepticism remains pronounced, especially among younger people. A Korea Employers Federation survey found 55.7% do not trust the National Pension, 73.4% view the premium-rate increase negatively and 82.5% are concerned about raising the income replacement rate from 41.5% to 43%, with concern highest among respondents in their 30s and 20s. A separate survey by Pension Reform Youth Action showed 20.7% favored covering unfunded liabilities with government funds and abolishing the pension entirely, while 51% opposed the premium-rate hike. Authorities have tried to address those concerns by writing a state payment guarantee into the National Pension Act from January 1 and pushing the expected depletion point back from 2056 to 2064. Recent investment performance has been strong, but elevated domestic equity exposure leaves the fund more vulnerable to market corrections, reinforcing calls for better return management, lower asset concentration risk and further structural reform.