RBNZ survey shows two-year inflation expectations easing to 2.34%

New Zealand's two-year inflation expectations eased to 2.34% in Q3 2026, down from 2.5% in the prior quarter in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's latest survey of expectations, bringing the measure closer to the midpoint of the central bank's 1%-3% target band. Earlier details tied to the same survey showed one-year expectations falling to 2.60% from 3.41%, while five-year and ten-year expectations edged up to 2.31% and 2.20%. The survey was conducted in August 2026, with the official cash rate at 4.5% after the July policy meeting, and economists say the softer medium-term reading may strengthen the case for a rate cut later this year, although the RBNZ has said decisions will remain data-dependent. Inflation is still above target, and global oil prices and domestic capacity pressures remain risks ahead of the next OCR review in October 2026.

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