UK economy rebounds in Q2 as investment rises, but Iran war clouds outlook

Britain's economy grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024, above forecasts for 0.4% and stronger than the 0.4% pace cited in earlier reporting, following 0.7% growth in the first quarter. Annual growth reached 1.3%, also ahead of expectations. The expansion was led by the services sector, particularly professional services, scientific activities and IT, while production was flat and construction edged lower. Earlier official data had also shown a 0.3% rise in June output and stronger capital spending, with business investment and gross fixed capital formation increasing in the quarter. The figures strengthen the view that the UK has continued to recover from its earlier downturn, supported by easing inflation and firmer household spending, but economists and business groups have continued to warn that high borrowing costs, energy-market disruption linked to the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran, and political uncertainty could still weigh on growth later in the year. With inflation at 2.0% in May and June and the Bank of England's base rate at 5.0% as of August 2024, markets are pricing in a possible rate cut later in the year, though policymakers remain cautious about elevated services inflation and wage growth.

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