A Polymarket prediction market on which AI lab will rank third in Arena.ai’s Text Arena (Math) leaderboard by the end of August 2026 now shows Alibaba at 77% and Google at 18%. Over the past 24 hours, Alibaba’s implied probability rose 56%, while Google’s fell 47%, signaling a sharp shift in trader expectations. The contract is set to resolve using Arena.ai’s leaderboard at 12:00 p.m. Eastern on Aug. 31, 2026, after filtering the Leaderboard page to "Labs," turning Style Control off, and setting Adjustments to None. If the lab ranking is ambiguous or unavailable, the rules fall back to each company’s highest-ranked model in the "Models" view, then to exact Arena Score values, and finally to alphabetical order if a tie still remains.