ECB seen raising rates to 2.50% in September, then holding through Q3 2027

The European Central Bank is expected to deliver one more interest-rate increase in September, lifting its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, before leaving policy unchanged through at least the third quarter of 2027, according to a Reuters poll. The survey of 69 economists showed 57, or about 83%, expect a September move, up from 72% before the July meeting and roughly 65% in June, underscoring a strengthening consensus after the ECB's June hike. Around 80% expect the deposit rate to end this year at 2.50%, while 63% see it staying at or above that level until the third quarter of 2027. Persistently high oil prices have raised concerns about second-round effects feeding into broader inflation, delayed a return to the ECB's 2% target until the third quarter of 2027, and kept the case for further tightening alive even as growth forecasts for 2026 were upgraded.

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