Rare Evo 2026 in Las Vegas underscored muted crypto sentiment as prospects for the CLARITY Act, the U.S. crypto market structure bill, continued to deteriorate. Galaxy Research cut the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 10% on August 14, down from earlier estimates that had reached as high as 75%, citing Senate calendar constraints, unresolved ethics restrictions on government officials' crypto holdings, pressure from community banks over stablecoin yield provisions and renewed scrutiny of developer protections tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. The House passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 in May 2026, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not bring it to a floor vote before the August recess. His office filed a cloture motion, setting the first procedural vote for September 15, one day after the Senate returns. Galaxy's Alex Thorn said the chamber has only a narrow window before lawmakers break around October 2 for midterm election activity, leaving little room for delay if the bill is to advance. As the legislative path narrows, the SEC and CFTC are moving independently. Galaxy said the SEC had held back two crypto exemptions, Reg Crypto and the Innovation Exemption, to avoid disrupting CLARITY's politics, though Bloomberg reported on August 11 that both were imminent before the SEC canceled a planned August 14 open meeting. Galaxy still expects both within weeks or a couple of months. The CFTC, meanwhile, issued an emergency order on August 14 asserting federal jurisdiction over prediction market contracts in response to a New York Attorney General effort to block Kalshi's event contracts nationwide, while also working with industry through Project Crypto. Thorn said such agency steps may offer near-term relief for fundraising and trading but lack the permanence of legislation and could be reversed by a future administration. Patrick Witt has said the administration remains committed to passing a crypto market structure bill in September, but Galaxy views that month as the last realistic chance for enactment in 2026.