Global oil stocks are being tested by a war-driven supply shock that the head of Saudi Aramco says has removed 2.6 billion barrels since the conflict began, while most analysts put the immediate supply gap at about 5 million bpd despite Aramco's estimate of 11 million barrels of daily Gulf supply losses. The International Energy Agency (West's energy watchdog) says combined government and commercial inventories total 1.5 billion barrels, but only 0.9 billion barrels of government-held stocks could cover the current gap for 180 days; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country's emergency crude stockpile, has fallen to its lowest level since January 1983 and analysts say only about 200 million barrels may be accessible. Thin diesel and jet fuel inventories, uncertainty over China's 1.0 billion to 1.7 billion barrels of crude, and the fact that oil held on water is often already sold leave the market vulnerable to price spikes, although Energy Aspects estimates that at 1.7 billion barrels China could replace its pre-war Strait of Hormuz imports of 5.5 million bpd for almost a year.