A widening gap between US government estimates and private shipping data is raising doubts about how fully Middle East oil supply has recovered after the Iran war. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the seven-day average volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to about 9 million barrels a day through coordination between the US military and Gulf allies, and that total Middle East crude flows reach about 15 million barrels a day when pipeline and export facility volumes are included. Private estimates from Kpler and LSEG Oil Research point to materially lower export levels, with Kpler showing Hormuz crude exports at 2.77 million barrels a day in the week beginning July 27 and 1.74 million barrels a day in the week beginning August 3. Kpler said the highest weekly level since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 was 6.98 million barrels a day in the week beginning June 29. Regional export and import figures also remain below prewar norms, suggesting the recovery may be incomplete. Reuters columnist Clyde Russell said one possible reason for the 3 million to 5 million barrel-a-day discrepancy is double-counting during ship-to-ship transfers (cargo moved between vessels at sea). The debate may be resolved by upcoming country-level import data, which should show within about six weeks whether the 15 million barrels a day cited by the US government is reaching major buyers.