Markets are pricing a 65.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through September, while the chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase stands at 34.8%, according to CME FedWatch. For October, the outlook is more mixed: traders assign a 50.1% probability to rates staying unchanged, a 41.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, and an 8.1% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase. The figures reflect how interest-rate expectations remain a key driver for risk assets, including crypto, because shifts in U.S. monetary policy can affect liquidity and investor appetite for volatile markets.