Siegel says September Fed hike unlikely if oil holds near $80

Jeremy Siegel said the Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates unchanged in September if oil stays near $80 a barrel, arguing that cooler CPI and PPI readings, a lower Goldman Sachs forecast for the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge and solid corporate earnings support that view. The senior economist at WisdomTree and professor emeritus of finance at the Wharton School said traders had been roughly split on a September hike before the CPI report, but softer inflation data shifted sentiment toward a hold as the S&P 500 topped 7,800. He also said a leverage-driven liquidity scare earlier this month appeared to reveal limited excess risk rather than a deeper market problem, while artificial intelligence spending is boosting earnings beyond hyperscalers and may support a rotation from richly valued growth stocks into cheaper value shares.

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