CFTC reviews prediction-market mention markets over manipulation concerns

The CFTC is conducting an internal review of prediction-market mention markets, contracts that let traders wager on whether specific words will be said in speeches, earnings calls or broadcasts. People familiar with the matter told CNBC the regulator alerted Kalshi several weeks ago, and the platform removed its sports-related mention markets around that time. It remains unclear whether the review is limited to sports-related products or extends to all mention markets. The scrutiny reflects long-running concerns that a single speaker can easily determine outcomes in these contracts, making them especially vulnerable to manipulation. Kalshi's mention markets generated about $3.3 million in trading volume last month, according to Dune Analytics, well below larger categories such as crypto-linked markets. The issue has drawn attention before: the CFTC said in July it was investigating a former teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump who allegedly made $90,000 in profits on Kalshi bets tied to Trump's speech content, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong highlighted the manipulation risk last December by deliberately saying a string of market-sensitive words on an earnings call. Kalshi has argued in public comments that mention markets add only a limited, transparent and surveilled increment to incentives that already exist in broader financial markets. Polymarket does not list mention markets on its CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange, though it offers them overseas. The review comes ahead of an Aug. 20 meeting of the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee, where prediction markets, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency are on the agenda, and amid broader pressure on event-contract platforms from both federal regulators and states. Separately, the Financial Times reported JPMorgan had cut off Polymarket from financial services last October, but Polymarket told CNBC it still maintains a close, active relationship with the bank.

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