U.S. 30-year real yields near 18-year highs around 3% amid bond flood

Real yields (bond returns above expected inflation) have climbed to multi-year highs across major economies, with U.S. 30-year real yields near 18-year highs at around 3% and British and German 10-year real yields at their highest in more than a decade. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have issued almost $220 billion of bonds so far this year, more than double the $108 billion for the whole of 2025, while the U.S. budget deficit is set to run at around 6% of GDP, or $1.9 trillion, this year, with France at 5% and Britain at 4%. Investors and analysts say heavy issuance from AI hyperscalers (large cloud and AI platform operators) and governments, alongside rate-hike expectations, relatively strong U.S. growth and the end of central bank bond-buying, has forced buyers to demand higher returns, pushing nominal yields higher even as inflation expectations remain broadly steady despite the Iran conflict. Stocks have so far held up on record highs and stronger earnings forecasts, but some investors warn that higher inflation-adjusted borrowing costs could eventually curb credit demand, consumption, investment and economic growth.

The information on this website is generated using AI and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Please use it as reference information only.