El Nino risk jumps in corporate filings as firms step up contingency plans

El Nino has moved sharply higher on the corporate risk agenda, with companies increasingly discussing how to manage disruption from a potentially very strong event that scientists say could be the most disruptive since 1950. A Reuters-cited AlphaSense review found 478 companies mentioned El Nino in 1,443 documents from May 1 to August 4, including 316 references in earnings calls, the highest since 2019. Most companies in sectors such as food, chemicals and banking focused on exposure and contingency planning rather than giving clear estimates for sales, earnings or cash flow. Indian companies accounted for nearly 900 documents, far outpacing U.S.-based firms, reflecting India's dependence on monsoon rainfall. EY's Global Chief Sustainability Strategist Velislava Ivanova said climate change is making conditions warmer, drier and more erratic, complicating both scientific forecasting and business planning, while increasing demand for supply-chain stress testing. A 2023 Dartmouth College study said the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino events caused economic losses of $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion, respectively, over the following five years. Companies are already adjusting spending and expectations. Peruvian miner Compañía de Minas Buenaventura added $12 million to capital expenditure to prepare mines for flooding risks, while UPL Limited said planting delays in India and Europe would shift some demand into later quarters. AWL Agri Business Limited said rural sales could suffer if agricultural disruption cuts incomes. Reuters Climate Monitor showed parts of India were 8 to 9 degrees Celsius above their 1961-1990 average on August 10, while the average high across Asia was 3.9 degrees above. Some businesses may benefit: AES said stronger spot electricity sales and prices in Colombia lifted second-quarter revenue by $67 million, and First Eagle Investments said weaker Asian harvests could support U.S. crop prices.

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