S&P 500 call buying climbs as rally fuels fear of missing out

Investor sentiment in U.S. equities has swung back toward buying dips as July's technology-led selloff fades and major indexes rebound. The S&P 500 has risen about 4% in August and set a record high this week, while the Nasdaq 100 has recovered strongly from its brief July pullback and now sits about 2.5% below its June peak. Strong second-quarter earnings, cooler inflation and growing expectations of rate cuts have supported the move, while falling oil prices have also eased some macro pressure. Demand for U.S. information technology shares has climbed to its highest level in nearly five years, and institutional investors have continued increasing bullish derivatives bets, reinforcing a broader fear-of-missing-out dynamic already visible in the options market. Citadel Securities previously said demand for call options on at least 170 S&P 500 constituents exceeded demand for options tied to market swings by the widest margin since at least 2016. State Street Global Advisors macro strategist Michael Metcalfe said technology trading currently looks "indestructible," with earnings strengthening the view that AI investment is a long-term structural trend. Earnings season has added to that confidence: aggregate profit at S&P 500 companies rose more than 50% year over year, and remained around 30% even excluding investment gains at Amazon and Google parent Alphabet. AI-linked stocks have led the latest rebound, with Super Micro Computer up about 37% in August, SanDisk up about 33%, and cloud computing companies CoreWeave and Nebius Group each up more than 40%. Wall Street firms have also raised targets, with Citigroup lifting its end-2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 and JPMorgan Chase raising its target from 7800 to 8000. Still, some strategists are warning that valuations and geopolitics leave little room for disappointment. Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen said markets are pricing a "golden scenario" of continued growth, only modest policy tightening, easing Middle East supply risks and lower oil prices.

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