Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round runoff for October’s election, but Quaest’s latest poll shows the contest tightening to a statistical tie within its two-point margin of error. Lula drew 43% support to Bolsonaro’s 40%, compared with 44% to 39% in Quaest’s August 5 poll. In a first-round scenario, Lula led with 38%, followed by Bolsonaro on 31%, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado on 4% each, and Romeu Zema on 2%. Quaest surveyed 2,004 people between August 10 and 13 for the poll, which was commissioned by Brazilian media group Globo. Flavio Bolsonaro has emerged as the standard-bearer for Brazil’s right after former President Jair Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office and later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 loss to Lula, while Lula has cast his re-election bid as a defense of Brazilian sovereignty amid pressure from the administration of United States President Donald Trump.