Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the chances of the CLARITY Act passing this year to 10%, down from 75% in May, signaling a sharp deterioration in expectations for one of the main U.S. crypto market-structure proposals. The bill would divide oversight of crypto assets between two federal regulators. The Senate is scheduled to return to Washington on Sept. 14, followed by roughly three working weeks, and the chamber's calendar shows a cloture motion (procedure to end debate) to advance the bill becomes eligible for a vote at 14:15 on Sept. 15. That motion would need support from at least 60 senators. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning that even if every Republican senator backs the measure, at least seven senators from other parties would still need to support it. Galaxy Digital said unresolved ethics rules, declining Republican support linked to bank lobbying, and a short September legislative window are the main obstacles to the bill passing this year.