Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in a Tesla-SpaceX merger before 2028, with Kalshi's odds rising from 65% to 71% and Polygon-based Polymarket assigning a 55% chance that the companies combine by Dec. 31, 2027. Shorter-dated expectations have weakened, however, as Polymarket's odds of a deal by the end of 2026 have fallen from 57% in May to 20%. Musk said on Tesla's second-quarter earnings call last month that the companies are collaborating more closely, but added that an earnings call was not the right place to discuss a merger and that any move "has to go through the appropriate process." JPMorgan said in July that SpaceX's record-breaking IPO could make a combination more practical, while Joe Lonsdale has pointed to synergies across Musk's companies; no formal deal has been announced.