Gold edges higher near $4,400 as weak U.S. data cool September hike bets

Gold rose for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, with spot prices advancing 0.4% to $4,431.09 an ounce in early GMT trading after a 1.2% gain the previous day, as a weaker U.S. dollar and fading expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening supported demand. U.S. December gold futures added 0.3% to $4,487.70. The dollar index fell to the 100 level, its weakest in more than two months, making bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Markets have also sharply repriced the Fed outlook after softer U.S. data, including July job losses, cooler consumer inflation and weak retail sales. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of a September rate hike at 33%, down from 51.2% a month earlier, while a Reuters poll of economists found a majority expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in September and through the end of 2026. Analysts said the combination of dollar weakness, lower rate expectations and rising geopolitical risk has strengthened gold's appeal as both a non-yielding asset and a haven. Bart Melek of TD Securities linked the move to concerns that the U.S. economy is drifting toward stagflation, while IG's Tony Sycamore said gold was regaining safe-haven status despite higher Treasury yields. Tensions in the Middle East added another layer of support after a senior Iranian official said Tehran had shifted from a defensive posture to a "fully offensive" one as efforts to reach a permanent agreement ending the war with the United States stalled. Investors are now watching minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting, due Wednesday, for further clues on the policy path. Elsewhere in precious metals, spot silver rose 0.8% to $66.33 an ounce, platinum gained 0.5% to $1,779.50 and palladium was little changed at $1,332.50. In Vietnam, Saigon Jewelry Company listed SJC gold at 141.20 million to 144.20 million Vietnamese dong per tael in Hanoi early Tuesday.

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