Wheat traded around $6.7 per bushel in mid-August, holding at its highest level since July 24 as fighting-linked disruptions in the Black Sea kept supply risks in focus. Ukrainian strikes on August 12 and 13 hit Novorossiysk, Russia’s main deep-water grain export hub, damaging the Novorossiysk Grain Plant, Demetra’s Novorossiysk Grain Terminal and the KSK terminal, with all three halting export operations. At least five grain ships were also attacked near Novorossiysk and Tuapse, further complicating shipments from a region that has become Russia’s last viable deep-water grain export point. The attacks, combined with navigation restrictions imposed afterward, took more than 90% of Russia’s grain export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea basin offline, amplifying concern in a market already strained by escalating attacks on commercial shipping. Russia and Ukraine together supply more than 25% of world wheat exports, and buyers in the Middle East and Africa are especially exposed to prolonged disruptions. The market had already been supported after Russia rejected a Black Sea ceasefire with Ukraine, while the US Department of Agriculture cut its 2026/27 wheat export forecasts to 46 million tonnes for Russia and 13.5 million tonnes for Ukraine. Persistent dryness in the southern U.S. Plains has also raised concern ahead of planting for the 2027 winter wheat crop.