Media reports from Al Arabiya and Alhadath said the United States and Iran had agreed to extend their 60-day arrangement, but Polymarket traders continued to assign only a 5% chance that the contract would resolve Yes because the market requires clear official announcements from both sides before 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Aug. 20. Later, as the June 17 memorandum's 60-day window expired Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry ruled out talks to extend it and spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the U.S. had violated the understanding from the start. Markets reacted differently as headlines shifted: crude initially fell by more than $1 intraday and U.S. stock-index futures rose after the extension reports, while later Monday U.S. crude rose 0.76% to $83.03 a barrel and Brent gained 0.92% to $89.33 after Iran rejected an extension.