Markets are awaiting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's July 28-29 meeting for details on its 9-3 decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, citing inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and price pressures including higher energy costs. Investors will assess whether some of the nine officials who supported unchanged rates also favored tighter policy but preferred to wait for more data. Expectations for a September hike have fallen sharply after weaker July inflation, consumer demand and employment data: CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 32.8% hike probability and a 67.2% probability of unchanged rates, while Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad each indicated roughly a 74%-75% probability of a hold. Interest-rate swaps implied about 9 basis points of September tightening and roughly 40 basis points of cumulative tightening by June 2027, compared with a 68% hike probability two weeks earlier. Traders unwound September and December hike positions and added SOFR options implying an unchanged September rate and possible cuts by March or June 2027. The Fed is using a meeting-by-meeting approach, making upcoming jobs and inflation reports important before the next FOMC meeting on 16 September. Elevated long-term Treasury yields remain consistent with fiscal-deficit, Treasury-supply and long-run inflation risks even as front-end markets price a less aggressive policy path.