The Federal Reserve's current policy stance may be accommodative rather than restrictive when judged against a medium-run estimate of the neutral rate, according to a San Francisco Fed paper published Monday. The research, written by San Francisco Fed research advisor Vasco Curdia, contrasts with the view held by most U.S. central bank policymakers, who see policy as restrictive or possibly neutral, and also differs from longer-run neutral-rate estimates that imply the current 3.50%-3.75% benchmark range is about half a percentage point above neutral. Curdia wrote that using a medium-run real natural rate could help stabilize inflation and achieve maximum employment more effectively than standard policy benchmarks. As of August 2026, that measure suggests the current policy target is about half to three-quarters of a percentage point below the level consistent with an economy operating at full capacity without being slowed. The paper also suggested that relying on longer-run neutral-rate estimates may produce less optimal economic outcomes than rules based on a medium-term measure.